I'm Sorry......
For yesterday's extreme pessimism.
However, as good as yesterday's win over the Western Conference Champion Dallas Mavericks was, I'm not about to annoint the Dubs into west's top 8. I did realize however, that this early part of the season is going to be a work in progress. The Dubs are going to win some and they are going have nights like last Wednesday and Saturday nights where they get blown out.
I read earlier this year that coach Nelson said (and I'm paraphrasing) he will know what kind of team he has after 20 games. Last night, and probably for the first time this season, Nelson saw (sort of) what he thought he was going to get from the start.
-A strong performance from BD (26,7 & 8 in 48)
-Solid contributions from his wing players (JRich 22, Monta 15 Pietrus 12, and good D)
-Steady shooting from TMurph (20 &6)
Surprising contribution came from ABiedrins who had another 3 blocks and only 2 fouls as he was inserted into the starting lineup.
Unsurprisingly, but not uncharacteristic for his career was that Mike Dunleavy did nothing, and did not even get off the bench (from what I saw) in the second half. He was again, a non-factor.
Things I like:
Nelson is unaffraid to change the lineups/match ups/playing time in search of the right combination. Last night for a majority of the 4th quarter the Dubs ran out
Monta (pg)
BD
JRich
MP
TMurph/AB
This lineup was able to run around and cause mis-matches.
They went to the zone, and ran two guys at Nowitzki every time he touched it. They forced guys like Devin Harris, and Anthony Johnson (two guys you can live with shooting long jumpers) to beat them. They rebounded fairly well We know how it turned out.
Monta Ellis is going to be a super star. The guy is poised as all heck for a 20 year old, he is fast, can finish at the tin, and can shoot. Once he learns how to distribute a little better, he is going to be a good Point/Combo guard, hopefully in the Arneas/Iverson mold.
I saw on TV that said he is 5th in scoring for second year players, and I think everyone on the list ahead of him is a starter. Impressive.
However, through four games, I think its evident the Dubs are going to have trouble with teams with big front lines. The Lakers and Jazz both have talented/tall front lines that were able to out rebound and hustle against the primarily smaller Warriors. Look for this to be an issue all year. The Warriors lack of size on the front line is going to force them to play zone a majority of the year. If shots aren't falling for the other team, and the Dubs can rebound the missed shots, this strategy has a chance to work, as it did last night and against the Blazers.
Tonight is another interesting match up. The Dubs did not fair well last year on the second night of a back to back. Against the Jazz on saturday they were listless. The Hornets spent a lot of money in the off season to bring in some quality veterans like Peja, Bobby Jackson and Tyson Chandler to surround all world and Team USA point guard Chris Paul, and surprising second year player David West outta Xavier University. Thus far this season, they are undefeated with Paul and West leading the way. The Dubs play the Hornets twice in the next three days, and it is important to get a split in this early intraconference match-up.
Prediction: A split (not sure where the win will come)
However, as good as yesterday's win over the Western Conference Champion Dallas Mavericks was, I'm not about to annoint the Dubs into west's top 8. I did realize however, that this early part of the season is going to be a work in progress. The Dubs are going to win some and they are going have nights like last Wednesday and Saturday nights where they get blown out.
I read earlier this year that coach Nelson said (and I'm paraphrasing) he will know what kind of team he has after 20 games. Last night, and probably for the first time this season, Nelson saw (sort of) what he thought he was going to get from the start.
-A strong performance from BD (26,7 & 8 in 48)
-Solid contributions from his wing players (JRich 22, Monta 15 Pietrus 12, and good D)
-Steady shooting from TMurph (20 &6)
Surprising contribution came from ABiedrins who had another 3 blocks and only 2 fouls as he was inserted into the starting lineup.
Unsurprisingly, but not uncharacteristic for his career was that Mike Dunleavy did nothing, and did not even get off the bench (from what I saw) in the second half. He was again, a non-factor.
Things I like:
Nelson is unaffraid to change the lineups/match ups/playing time in search of the right combination. Last night for a majority of the 4th quarter the Dubs ran out
Monta (pg)
BD
JRich
MP
TMurph/AB
This lineup was able to run around and cause mis-matches.
They went to the zone, and ran two guys at Nowitzki every time he touched it. They forced guys like Devin Harris, and Anthony Johnson (two guys you can live with shooting long jumpers) to beat them. They rebounded fairly well We know how it turned out.
Monta Ellis is going to be a super star. The guy is poised as all heck for a 20 year old, he is fast, can finish at the tin, and can shoot. Once he learns how to distribute a little better, he is going to be a good Point/Combo guard, hopefully in the Arneas/Iverson mold.
I saw on TV that said he is 5th in scoring for second year players, and I think everyone on the list ahead of him is a starter. Impressive.
However, through four games, I think its evident the Dubs are going to have trouble with teams with big front lines. The Lakers and Jazz both have talented/tall front lines that were able to out rebound and hustle against the primarily smaller Warriors. Look for this to be an issue all year. The Warriors lack of size on the front line is going to force them to play zone a majority of the year. If shots aren't falling for the other team, and the Dubs can rebound the missed shots, this strategy has a chance to work, as it did last night and against the Blazers.
Tonight is another interesting match up. The Dubs did not fair well last year on the second night of a back to back. Against the Jazz on saturday they were listless. The Hornets spent a lot of money in the off season to bring in some quality veterans like Peja, Bobby Jackson and Tyson Chandler to surround all world and Team USA point guard Chris Paul, and surprising second year player David West outta Xavier University. Thus far this season, they are undefeated with Paul and West leading the way. The Dubs play the Hornets twice in the next three days, and it is important to get a split in this early intraconference match-up.
Prediction: A split (not sure where the win will come)
posted by DailyDub at 1:12 PM
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