Thursday, November 23, 2006

The Gilbert Rule

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Not much to report today. Tough loss last night for the Dubs. Another 3 point loss with a good look to tie it at the buzzer. Missed free throws and layups cost us the game.
In reference to yesterday topic, I came across another good piece of info regarding Monta Ellis contract situation (a second round pick) and how it could play out come next summer. Not to worry Dubs fans, David Stern and the League did the Dubs a favor and created a rule named after Arenas, so that we (the Dubs) wouldn't get screwed like we did a few years back.

Check it out.....(via Fast Break, a Warriors Fan's Blog)

Being Warriors fans, we expect the worst. We draft great players, develop them, and wish them luck as they leave upon maturation for greener pastures. We draft less-than-great players, give them years to show their “potential,” and hand them fat contracts based on a wish and a promise. This was the way things worked, until Monta.

Dollar for dollar, there’s no better deal in the NBA right now than Monta Ellis. His rookie contract tops out in 2007-08 at a whopping $770,610. Alternatively, stated in Warriors fans’ favorite unit of measurement, that’s 10.38 Montas per Foyle. Fantastic, you say, but it’ll all go wrong when he comes up for a new contract, right? He’ll be leading some other franchise deep in the playoffs in 2008-09? Not so fast. With a little luck, Monta will buck that Warrior trend as well.

Cap specialist Larry Coon broke down Monta’s contract situation earlier this month. Here’s a summary:

Monta signed a three year deal, expiring after the 2007-08 season. At the end of his deal, Monta’s Bird Rights vest, allowing the Warriors to match any deal he receives from other teams even if it puts them over the cap. So, if the Warriors are willing to pay, they can keep Monta. Bust out the turkey and stuffing, it’s time for Warriors fans to give thanks.

The catch? The Warriors are already flirting with the luxury tax without giving new deals to Monta, Andris, and Pietrus. In a perfect world, the Warriors start winning, Cohan makes more money, and the franchise bites the luxury tax bullet to keep a fantastic young core together. It’s late-November and I’m still naive enough to believe that this might happen.

The alternative? Mullin gets on the phone. While playing armchair GM is a blast, I don’t know how much it really adds to these discussions. Obviously, there are a lot of moving parts not mentioned here, like signing draft picks and filling out a 15 man roster. That said, here’s my shot at ways to clear cap space:

Let Zarko and McLeod walk.
Buy out Foyle.
Trade our picks now for picks later.
Trade our picks and a bad contract for cap space. This route isn’t pretty but may be the least painful way to erase mistakes. We essentially bribe a team under the cap or with an expiring contract player to take Dunleavy, Murphy, or Foyle by giving up a pick (or picks) as well. This logic of talent for cap space swaps landed us Baron Davis for spare parts. I see Murphy as the most likely candidate in one of these deals, given Dunleavy’s major role on our team, rumors of a Foyle buyout, and the chance that Murphy could be more productive on an eastern conference team. Murphy’s deal also rolls off the books one year before Dunleavy’s.
Trade Davis, Richardson, or Diogu for expiring contracts. The last resort in my book. The demand for these players will be high enough to get cap relief straight up in a trade. They could also be packaged with one of the three guys in the bad contract list. In theory, our roster gives us flexibility to recover from the loss of any one of the group. Still, you hate to see a rising team dump the guys who helped right the ship.
My wild guess as to what happens:

2006-07 - We buy out Foyle and let Zarko and McLeod walk to clear space for Pietrus.
2007-08 - We deal Murphy and a pick for cap space. We seriously consider moving Davis before the final year of his deal. Cohan finally takes the luxury tax plunge after (hopefully) one or two trips to the playoffs. We resign Monta and Andris. Warriors fans sleep a little easier at night.
Cap specialists out there, see any mistakes? Have any other ideas?

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