Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Oh my....

First off, big ups to my boy Chef Bagel Dogg for inviting me to the game last night. At first, I was a bit skeptical, and truthfully, I always avoid picking the Spurs game in my annual Golden State Warrior Season ticket draft because frankly, the Spurs have owned the Warriors (30-5 in the Tim Duncan Era) and I just didn't think they could win. But the other truth, is that my boy Bagel Dogg's seats are the kind where no matter who is playing, you do not turn down an opportunity to sit at half court, 8 rows from the floor, at eye level with the rim.
The first thing that was clearly obvious to me, and what was so much more evident from my new vantage point was JUST how good Andris Biedrins is. With Monta Ellis turning the ball over on 3 of the first 4 possesions, it was Biedrins who steadied the Warriors in that first quarter with an array of great catches and touch put backs. For a guy his size, his hands are amazing and he moves with the fluidity of a guard. He catches everything, and really has a soft touch around the rim.
As for the aformentioned Ellis, I love to see that Nelson had no point yanking him early in the first quarter because of his miscues. Bruce Jenkins has a good article in today's SF Chronicle about impact of Nelson. The thing I love most about what he has shown us through the first 15 games, is that:
1. No one is above the team.
If you are not producing on the court, you will sit, and he will find someone else who will produce.
2. He is not afraid to mix and match lineups in an effort to find the best possible match ups for the current game. He plays to win, and to win on that given night.
This is a huge contradiction to Mike Montgomery who ran the same tired line up out on the court for two straight years, even when the team proved that they could not play well together.

Who is this Matt Barnes?
Bucking all UCLA powder blue trends, this cat is going to be a fixture in Golden State Warrior rotations for as long as Nelson is coaching here. The dude is ballin right now, filling it up, and contributing more than just shows up in the box score. After posting back to back career highs in points against the Nuggets and Jazz, Barnes was again in the starting lineup, and again made his impact felt. Though he did not score 20+, he scored, rebounded and defended extremely well. As Tim Kawakami points out in his blog, Barnes gritty-ness has possibly inspired Mike Dunleavy to play with a little bit more passion, and edge. Dunleavy was fantastic again last night, and really sealed the win by hitting a huge 3 mid way through the 4th quarter to cap the decisive 13-0 Warriors run, that took the Dubs from down 82-81, to up 94-82. The Spurs were never able to recover, thank mostly impart to a swarming Warriors defense, and Andris Biedrins who at one point blocked 3 straight Tim Duncan shot attempts.
Last night was a great win at the "O". The Dubs inproved to 8-3 at home, and as Bobby Fitzgerald pointed out on the post game show, the Warriors are relly starting to defend the home court, and gain a home court advantage. Lord knows, that Warriors fans deserve it. But most importantly, winning at home is the number one recepie for gaining entrance into the playoffs.
Other random NBA notes:
Tony Parker is amazing. He dominated Monta Ellis early, causing the three turnovers, and then getting into the lane, and finishing with an array of layups, floaters, and assists to Duncan for easy buckets. He is one of the fastest players in the league, and really a joy to watch. He scored 28 points, and all without hitting a three point shot, which for a guard, shows real offensive effiency.

If you were ever wondering why so many NFL teams are mimiking basketball players with their end zone or sack dances, here is your answer
Lastly, if you have not already seen this, it is worth replaying over and over and over. (As I did yesterday)

Warriors host the Indianapolis Pacer tomorrow. Trying to make it three in a row.

Thursday, November 23, 2006

The Gilbert Rule

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Not much to report today. Tough loss last night for the Dubs. Another 3 point loss with a good look to tie it at the buzzer. Missed free throws and layups cost us the game.
In reference to yesterday topic, I came across another good piece of info regarding Monta Ellis contract situation (a second round pick) and how it could play out come next summer. Not to worry Dubs fans, David Stern and the League did the Dubs a favor and created a rule named after Arenas, so that we (the Dubs) wouldn't get screwed like we did a few years back.

Check it out.....(via Fast Break, a Warriors Fan's Blog)

Being Warriors fans, we expect the worst. We draft great players, develop them, and wish them luck as they leave upon maturation for greener pastures. We draft less-than-great players, give them years to show their “potential,” and hand them fat contracts based on a wish and a promise. This was the way things worked, until Monta.

Dollar for dollar, there’s no better deal in the NBA right now than Monta Ellis. His rookie contract tops out in 2007-08 at a whopping $770,610. Alternatively, stated in Warriors fans’ favorite unit of measurement, that’s 10.38 Montas per Foyle. Fantastic, you say, but it’ll all go wrong when he comes up for a new contract, right? He’ll be leading some other franchise deep in the playoffs in 2008-09? Not so fast. With a little luck, Monta will buck that Warrior trend as well.

Cap specialist Larry Coon broke down Monta’s contract situation earlier this month. Here’s a summary:

Monta signed a three year deal, expiring after the 2007-08 season. At the end of his deal, Monta’s Bird Rights vest, allowing the Warriors to match any deal he receives from other teams even if it puts them over the cap. So, if the Warriors are willing to pay, they can keep Monta. Bust out the turkey and stuffing, it’s time for Warriors fans to give thanks.

The catch? The Warriors are already flirting with the luxury tax without giving new deals to Monta, Andris, and Pietrus. In a perfect world, the Warriors start winning, Cohan makes more money, and the franchise bites the luxury tax bullet to keep a fantastic young core together. It’s late-November and I’m still naive enough to believe that this might happen.

The alternative? Mullin gets on the phone. While playing armchair GM is a blast, I don’t know how much it really adds to these discussions. Obviously, there are a lot of moving parts not mentioned here, like signing draft picks and filling out a 15 man roster. That said, here’s my shot at ways to clear cap space:

Let Zarko and McLeod walk.
Buy out Foyle.
Trade our picks now for picks later.
Trade our picks and a bad contract for cap space. This route isn’t pretty but may be the least painful way to erase mistakes. We essentially bribe a team under the cap or with an expiring contract player to take Dunleavy, Murphy, or Foyle by giving up a pick (or picks) as well. This logic of talent for cap space swaps landed us Baron Davis for spare parts. I see Murphy as the most likely candidate in one of these deals, given Dunleavy’s major role on our team, rumors of a Foyle buyout, and the chance that Murphy could be more productive on an eastern conference team. Murphy’s deal also rolls off the books one year before Dunleavy’s.
Trade Davis, Richardson, or Diogu for expiring contracts. The last resort in my book. The demand for these players will be high enough to get cap relief straight up in a trade. They could also be packaged with one of the three guys in the bad contract list. In theory, our roster gives us flexibility to recover from the loss of any one of the group. Still, you hate to see a rising team dump the guys who helped right the ship.
My wild guess as to what happens:

2006-07 - We buy out Foyle and let Zarko and McLeod walk to clear space for Pietrus.
2007-08 - We deal Murphy and a pick for cap space. We seriously consider moving Davis before the final year of his deal. Cohan finally takes the luxury tax plunge after (hopefully) one or two trips to the playoffs. We resign Monta and Andris. Warriors fans sleep a little easier at night.
Cap specialists out there, see any mistakes? Have any other ideas?

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Let the Debate Begin

Who is best player on the Warriors? BD? JRich? Monta Ellis? While I am excited at the possibility of these three players playing together while all are at full strength, I think Monta has clearly thrown himself into into the realm of this question. A lot of different people have different opinions on what it takes to win in the Association, which position is the most valuable and so on and so forth. Today in hoops blogsphere I have come across a few different locations where this very topic is being debated.

I would go first to a Golden State of Mind, and make sure to check out the comments section of rabid Dubs fans (including myself) to get a good feel for what the general fan is thinking.

Then head over to a more legitimate source of professional sports Tim Kawakami's Talking Points to get his take on who the best Warrior's player is. I think you may know where this is going. Make sure to check out the Hockey style +/- rankings he uses to demonstate the value of Ellis.

Lastly, I meant to link this yesterday, but the national media is taking notice of the Dubs play and is rewarding them accordingly.

Also, if you haven't already checked it out, make sure to read Bill Simmons lastest ESPN the Mag entry on the plight of Kevin Garnett.

Lost in all this hoopla is that the Dubs lost a tough one at home Monday night. Though many fans in Dubs nation are counting it as a moral victory without BD, The Daily Dub concludes that there are no moral victories. The Dubs were up 14 with a little less than 5 minutes to play in the 2nd quarter, and let the Suns finish up the quarter on a 9-0 run to cut it to five, which then quickly evaporated as the Suns outscored the Warriors by 10 in the third quarter. While Monta was again amazing (31), I feel that the Dubs (and I think the players would tell you this too) should have won. Best thing about the NBA though, is there is another game tonight. As of this posting, the status of BD is still a game time decision. My hunch is he will not start tonight, and probably won't play. There is no need to risk losing Baron for an extended period of time to get a win. Any playoff aspirations lie mostly with BD being healthy for a majority of the season.

Monday, November 20, 2006

The 3.5 gram update

Otherwise known as an 1/8th. That is how much of the season has gone by, and after 10 games, the Dubs have cruised out to an 7-3 record. Much of the sucess this season can be attributed to the emergence of Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis. A fitter and more svelt Baron Davis is also doing his thing. The National Media is starting to take notice. Check it out!

The AP news on Monta Ellis.

Shawn Livingston Vs. the other members of the 2004 draft class (i.e. Andris Biedrins) .

Bench Renaldo thinks BD is an All-Star.

Also, always on Dubs point is Tim Kawakami back from vacation and chimming in on the end of the Dujuan Wagner era (D.Coli, we hardly knew ya!), and possibly the end of Troy Murphy and Ike Diogu.

And in other news, the Phoenix Suns come to town tonight. The one team in the league possible of playing the Warriors version of small ball aka, Nellie Ball, will be at the O tonight.
Both teams could be without star point guards Steve Nash and Baron Davis. That will leave it up to Leandro Barbosa (A DD fav) and Monta Ellis (possible future namesake of this blog) to battle it out at the most important position in the game of small ball.

Prediction: Dubs by two as MP hits game winning 3 point goal out of left corner.

Friday, November 17, 2006

Fantasy Smackdown

Baron Davis owners were most likely pleased with the personal smackdown he put on the Sacramento Kings last night. With 36/8/18 and 3 steals, Davis thoroughly dominated the game last night in a way that I have yet to see in a Warriors uniform. He dropped 11 dimes in the first quarter as the Warriors ran a lay-up line at the Kings and the national TV audience on TNT. By my rudimentary calculations, Davis accounted for more than 65% of the Warriors total offense. He routinely beat (which ever) defender off the dribble and either finished strong at the rim, drew the foul or found the open cutter or jump shooter for an easy bucket.
Mickael Pietrus was the primary beneficiary scoring on two nasty alley oops and an array of lay ups and dunks. In fact, Pietrus has done an excellent job this year of letting the game come to him. He is not "forcing" it offensively as much as he has in previous years, and seems to really be buying into whatever Don Nelson is feeding to him. (Of course, it doesn't hurt that he is in a contract year)
With the win, the Warriors improved to 4-0 on the current home stand, and 5-1 at the Arena thus far this year. I stated previously that this current stretch of games where the Dubs play 10 of 11 at home in the month of November would be critical to getting the season off to a good start. While the quality of the opponents has been a little bit on the light side, the Warriors are doing what they need to do, which is to handle their business at home.
The Warriors have been/are/and will continue to ride Davis during this stretch of the season until JRich returns to full health, and Diogu, and Murphy return from their respective injuries. Davis has been fantastic, and his dedication to fitness this off season really seem to be paying off for himself and the Dubs.
But the main difference between this year and last year, (besides coach Nelson) is the continued development of our young players, especially, Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins. Ellis started again for the third straight game and poured in an early 11 points in the first quarter before getting into foul trouble. He finished with 17, and the Warriors were at their best when he was on the floor. Biedrins has also really blossomed into a solid NBA basketball player. Last night he recorded a career high 16 rebounds, which probably was due in large part to the fact that (i'm guessing here) he played a career high 43 minutes. He was everywhere, grabbing rebounds, blocking shots and making tough catches in traffic and finishing strong at the tin. The only thing that he really lacks is a reliable free throw stroke. But we'll focus on the positives for now.
Saturday night brings the Ray Allen and the Seattle Supersonics to town. On Wednesday I predicted a sweep of the next two games, and I'm sticking with my prediction. This upcoming game is another very winnable game that the Warriors must have in the overal scheme of things. I think they ride Davis again, against former pac-ten all world point guards Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson. Neither of those guys will be able to contain Davis, and his production should equal or better that of Ray Allen. I think Seattle will keep it close for most of the first half, but the Dubs will use a decisive run between the 3rd and 4th quarters to pull away for their 5th win in a row. Check back Sunday for a recap.

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Week Two in Review

First off, I would like to apologize for my lack of posts this past week. I took some time off to regroup, and while I certainly had my fingers on the pulse of Dubs action, I was not able to devote myself the way I normally do.

That being said, week two of the NBA season and for the Dubs was a sucess. As predicted, the Dubs came home from their 3 game rodie and promply split the home and home series with the Hornets, by making all the crucial free throws and hitting big shots down the stretch to seperate from the NO/OKC. It was an imperative win, and also, got the franchise long home stand off to a good start. The game featured the battle of former and current star Hornet point guards Baron Davis and Chris Paul. Baron won the battle and the game, but Paul showed why he is generally regarded as the most promising point guard prospect since Jason Kidd.

Saturday saw the Dubs dismantle the once formidable Pistons with amazing ease. Perhaps benefitting from the 'Stons weary legs from their own dismantling of the Lake Show the night before at Staples. The Dubs were firing on all cylinders Saturday, and raced to an early double digit lead, which at one point reached 33 points.

I made the mistake of thinking my alma mater still had a chance in the Race to Roses and chose (wrongly) to devote myself to a game played by amatures. A mistake no doubt. At one point I asked the bartender if he could switch one of the four TV's over the the Dubs so I could at least check the score of this early season measuring stick of a game. He looked a me with a sneer, and then promptly moved on to the next customer. I was left without even a two dollar Olympia.

But as the beat writers pointed out, Coach Nellie's 6th starting line up in 6 games might have been his best. DailyDub favorite and rising super star Monta Ellis received his first start of the year, and along with Diddy, JRich, TMurph and AB, the Dubs ran a layup line not often seen in DEE-troit basketball games.

Yet the injury bug has yet to fly away from the Dubshack, as JRich, injured his ankle again in practice on Monday. He managed suit it up last night against eastern confernce perennial doormat Toronto Raptors, but Troy Murphy was then mysteriously out with a bruised heel. That meant the 7th starting line up in 7 games for coach Nelson. Last night's line up was the epitome of small ball, with Diddy, Ellis, Richardson, Pietrus (at the 4) along with our NEW STARTING CENTER Andres Biedrins.

DailyDub correspondant Big Bear had this to say about the Dubs action last night:

"Boom Dizzle had some serious sizzle.
He still has a really nasty tendency to hoist up too many 3 balls and fadeaways. His shot is so much different when he has his legs under him and he is going straight up and down or towards to basket.

The crowd was super hard on Dunleavy. He sucks. But he put up good numbers last night, hit a good percentage from the field, and got booed for any mistake or missed shot he had."

Big Bear goes on to say:

" The Warriors in the first quarter and a half were up by as many as nine. Then Biedrans and Monta got into foul trouble and had to ride the pine. At one point we had BD, JR, Roberson, MP, and Dun all on the floor at once. With Dun guarding the middle, many Raptors just cruised through the paint to lay it in. They also started really cycling the ball at the same time the Dubs got lazy in their rotations, so they had a ton of open looks. What was a nine point Warriors lead with momentum and a chance to get to double digits and demoralize the visiting team by half-time turned into a six point (I believe) half time lead for the Raptors.

The other highlight of the night was the near standing ovation that our junior senator Foyle got when he entered the game. He then proceeded to bobble away the ball for most of his time, but he did get a nice little finish around the rim for a couple of points and showed some great hustle getting up and down the court."

So there you have it. The Dubs start strong on the homestand going 3-0. This is encouraging, but still, they have some more winnable game. Kawakami is predicting a split between the Sacramento and Seattle games. I will go one step further and predict that the Dubs will win them both. It will not be easy, as Ron-Ron, KMart (new and improved), and (Warrior Killer) Shareef Abdur-Rahim are playing decent ball. However, I'm feeling the Oracle crowd will be the difference, and Monta and BD will continue to play stong down the stretch. The Dubs will need it though, because it is impossible to take Ron Artest off the dribble. He is leading the league in thefts this season (wonder if he learned that in the hood?) and basically shuts down whoever he is guarding. Kevin Martin (high top fade) is a top 15 scorer, averaging 23.5 per.

Seattle has proven to be better than the national media thought they would be. They continue to employ the World's best shooter in Ray Allen, and as long as he is held in relative check, the Dubs should also be able to pull this one out.

The DailyDub will have exclusive coverage from Section 124 tomorrow night. We are looking forward to seeing Ron Ron play in person, and rumor has it, he may be performing one of his tracks from his new album at half time.

Go Dubs




Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Too Much Teal

52-34.
That was NO/OKC's rebounding margin last night. Of which, 21 were on the offensive glass. Its pretty hard to win in any basketball setting, when three guys on the other team have double double's. To be fair, the Warriors were without two major contributors in the rebounding/defensive realms (Diogu/Pietrus=ankle sprains).
Even with the rebounding deficiency, the Dubs almost pulled it out. I think the two things that cost them were the way they finished the second and third quarters. At the end of two, the Dubs had cut the deficit down to five, only to give up two un answered buckets and go into the half down nine. At the end of the third, they battled from 15 down at one point to cut it to one, but ended that quarter down 10. Tim Roye on the radio was emphasizing the importance of finishing quarters strong. As we know, the Warriors failed again in the 4th quarter after finally taking a three point lead.
Regardless, again there were some bright spots. I highly encourage you to check out Tim Kawakami today, regarding the future relavence of Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy's playing time. Basically he says that Don Nelson has realized that these two should never play on the court together, and in fact, the Warriors are better off when neither of these two are on the court. Essentially, they cannot defend, and are two of the worst defenders in the Association.
Interesting stat line: BD and Monta are tied for the team lead in scoring at 15.8 per. More importantly though, is that Monta is getting done on 52% shooting from the floor, while BD is characteristically around 33%. Sounds like the Warriors have a new best player, and it appears to me that Monta should be taking more shots.
Roye also highlighted the fact that Monta has reached double digits in scoring the the first 5 games of this season, and dating back to last season he has no scored double digits in like 12 games in a row. (This may become the Monta Ellis blog sometime soon.....Stay tuned)
So the the Dubs just completed their little 3 game roadie at 1-2. Had a chance to win last night, so that is (at least) a step in right direction.
We (they) now reach the first pivital stretch of the season where we (they) play 11 of the next 12 games at the Arena (The Oracle) in Oakland.
As I predicted yesterday, I think the Dubs will bounce back and get the victory vs. NO/OKC tomorrow night. After that, they will need to step it up. Hopefully with more Andries Biedrins (six blocks last night....6!) and less Mike Dunleavy.

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

I'm Sorry......

For yesterday's extreme pessimism.
However, as good as yesterday's win over the Western Conference Champion Dallas Mavericks was, I'm not about to annoint the Dubs into west's top 8. I did realize however, that this early part of the season is going to be a work in progress. The Dubs are going to win some and they are going have nights like last Wednesday and Saturday nights where they get blown out.
I read earlier this year that coach Nelson said (and I'm paraphrasing) he will know what kind of team he has after 20 games. Last night, and probably for the first time this season, Nelson saw (sort of) what he thought he was going to get from the start.
-A strong performance from BD (26,7 & 8 in 48)
-Solid contributions from his wing players (JRich 22, Monta 15 Pietrus 12, and good D)
-Steady shooting from TMurph (20 &6)

Surprising contribution came from ABiedrins who had another 3 blocks and only 2 fouls as he was inserted into the starting lineup.
Unsurprisingly, but not uncharacteristic for his career was that Mike Dunleavy did nothing, and did not even get off the bench (from what I saw) in the second half. He was again, a non-factor.

Things I like:
Nelson is unaffraid to change the lineups/match ups/playing time in search of the right combination. Last night for a majority of the 4th quarter the Dubs ran out
Monta (pg)
BD
JRich
MP
TMurph/AB

This lineup was able to run around and cause mis-matches.
They went to the zone, and ran two guys at Nowitzki every time he touched it. They forced guys like Devin Harris, and Anthony Johnson (two guys you can live with shooting long jumpers) to beat them. They rebounded fairly well We know how it turned out.

Monta Ellis is going to be a super star. The guy is poised as all heck for a 20 year old, he is fast, can finish at the tin, and can shoot. Once he learns how to distribute a little better, he is going to be a good Point/Combo guard, hopefully in the Arneas/Iverson mold.

I saw on TV that said he is 5th in scoring for second year players, and I think everyone on the list ahead of him is a starter. Impressive.

However, through four games, I think its evident the Dubs are going to have trouble with teams with big front lines. The Lakers and Jazz both have talented/tall front lines that were able to out rebound and hustle against the primarily smaller Warriors. Look for this to be an issue all year. The Warriors lack of size on the front line is going to force them to play zone a majority of the year. If shots aren't falling for the other team, and the Dubs can rebound the missed shots, this strategy has a chance to work, as it did last night and against the Blazers.

Tonight is another interesting match up. The Dubs did not fair well last year on the second night of a back to back. Against the Jazz on saturday they were listless. The Hornets spent a lot of money in the off season to bring in some quality veterans like Peja, Bobby Jackson and Tyson Chandler to surround all world and Team USA point guard Chris Paul, and surprising second year player David West outta Xavier University. Thus far this season, they are undefeated with Paul and West leading the way. The Dubs play the Hornets twice in the next three days, and it is important to get a split in this early intraconference match-up.
Prediction: A split (not sure where the win will come)

Monday, November 06, 2006

Reuniting of Reclamation Projects

Dubs in Dallas tonight.
Game 2 of the 3 game roadie. Though the Dubs were the only team to beat the Mavericks twice last year at American Airlines' arena, I have a feeling the Mavericks are going to be a bit more focused since they haven't won a game since game 2 of last year's NBA finals.
The Warriors meanwhile are struggling. They have no identity except one of a team that obviously cannot shoot. Saturday night in Utah was another case of horrific free throw shooting. (54% 20-35)
Is it too much to ask for a professional team to at least shoot 75% from the line. 3 outta 4 cannot possibly be that hard can it? I am seriously bummed out that this season, and all the optimism that Nellie, and the promise of small ball had, could be lost fairly soon. I know its early, but I just haven't seen much from the Warriors to suggest that things are changing for the positive. What we know is.... the team as it is presently contructed cannot win together. No one in our (and when I say "our" I mean the Dubs) lineup is a proven winner. The only guy who has played in the playoffs is Davis, and he did so as a younger player surrounded by veterens. The rest of the group is part of the culture of losing.
What is worse is that teams such as Portland, Utah, and New Orleans/Oklahoma City seem to be turning around their franchises quicker. Utah and NO/OKC are teams that the Dubs were thought to be competing with for one of final playoff spots in the uber conpetitive western conference. What we know is Utah is a far superior team than the Dubs. NO/OKC is one of two undefeated teams left the lig, and the Warriors have to play them twice in the next 4 days.
It is conceivable that the Warriors could be 1-5 on Friday morning and quickly sliding out of contention for everything except more ping pong balls. When is enough enough?
I wish I knew.
The Mavs on the other hand (Nelson's previous reclamation project) have made all the right moves since Nelson took over as the team's head coach in the last 90's. It started with Nelson fleecing the Milwakie Bucks on Draft Day in 98 by trading Robert "Tracktor" Traylor for the rights to the unknown German big man Dirk Nowitzki. We all know how that turned out.
While the Mavs have made shrewd moves personel moves to become a perenial 50 game winner, the Warriors....well that also is well chronicled.
Is Patrick O'Bryant the next Nowitzki? Obviously not, but hopefully Nelson will be able to get something out of Diogu, Ellis, O'Bryant and Biedrins, because at this point, we have nothing left to hope for.

Friday, November 03, 2006

Please Welcome.....

The Portland Trailblazers. Still high off of their comeback road victory on Wednesday night, and sitting in a tie atop the Northwestern Division standing, the Trailblazers will look to continue on the positivie progress of rebuilding.
Fresh off thier first road win in something like 18 tries, the Blazers battled back late in the 4th behind a steady diet of the rejuvinated Zach Randolph.
Tonight, I think the Blazers will initially see if they can pound it into Randolf down low and I expect the Warriors will counter with a simple 2-3 zone Defense and double team Zeebo and force him to get rid pass out of the double team. Portland showed that it might have a chance and may have made the right decision by trading away Randy Foye (A DDub favorite) for Brandon Roy. The rookie poured in 20 in his first game. A game in which he spent much of his time chasing the sonics Ray Allen around Key Arena. Roy appears to be solid, confident and polisheded for a rook, and if he can be a consistent producer night in and night out, the Blazers, (it is conceiveable) could end up higher than last in the Western Conference Standings.

For the Warriors, tonight is a big game for a team who's pysche could very well be in question. A loss tonight before a diffucult 3 game roadie to Utah, Dallas and New Orleans/OKC could have Dubs comeing back to Oakland next week, oooohhhhhhhhhhh and five.
However, I imagine it is not lost on coach Nelson Re: this doom scenario that I just referenced. And I'm positive that he will have the Warriors focused and ready to play tonight. I think (but more hope) the Warriors look to run, and spread the ball around on the perimeter (like they did in their first exibition game against the Blazers) and have everyone (including Dunleavy) try to take their man and create mismatches off the dribble.

Will the Warriors win?
I think it possible they could not. I am not sure the extent that Jason Richardson (a Trailblazer killer) is feeling as this will only be his second game of the season.
But in the end, I expect the Dubs to get the victory behind bounce back preformances of everyone on the team. They cannot afford to lose tonight, and they will not.
Warriors 114- 104

Check out what TrueHoop had to say:

Brandon Roy

  • Maybe I'm really the first (I doubt it, but I don't remember seeing it elsewhere) to call him Brandin R-O-Y?
  • 6-6, with a jumper and mad penetrating abilities, he's going to be a real handful as the ball-handler on the high pick and roll. That's Portland's new go-to play.
  • He's still a little tentative--it cost him a traveling violation, an assist to Przybilla, and at least one makeable jumper. That'll pass.
  • He's a little dribbley. There are times he should shoot it or pass it faster. But this was, you know, his very first real NBA game.
Dwight Howard
  • If you're watching Orlando, and you're unclear which player is Dwight Howard, don't bother looking for his name or number on the uniform. HE'S THE BIG ONE.
  • From my notes: Spin move, dunk. Jump hook. Lob for dunk. Put back. Jump hook. Quadruple teamed, and he ends up with an and-one. Kicking out for a three-pointer.
  • He is still really young, and his footwork is not yet perfect, and he's already killing everybody.
  • He gets very deep post position, which makes him look really good--because when you get the ball all the way down there, it's not to hard to get the bucket. He only looks a little skittish when he catches the ball far from the hoop. Based on this one game against Chicago, that's a little bit of his kryptonite.
Monta Ellis
  • He runs really fast.
  • He runs really, really fast.
  • He rune really, really fast all the time.
  • He runs too fast. He'll be better, and cause many fewer turnovers, when he learns to vary his pace and his approach.
Andrew Bynum
  • He looks really good, especially considering his age. But I was just watching Dwight Howard. And Andrew Bynum is a really poor man's Dwight Howard.
  • He also gets good post position, but he blew more than his share of layups with a hand in his face. (With the same position, Howard would be dunking.) He's not as strong as Howard, which means he has to finesse things a little, which he's OK at.
Kevin Martin
  • He's going to score a ton of points. And here's why: he's money on the fast break, and he's money whenever he's left open. He's also pretty much money if he gets an opening to slash to the hoop. Pretty much any mistake the defense could make results in a scoring opportunity for Kevin Martin--without plays being called for him. He can clean up a whole bunch of garbage. And, increasingly, it will also make sense to call his number too.
  • I'd have to believe that among high-scoring perimeter players, he counts as one of the longest and one of the fastest. That's a pretty good combination.

Thursday, November 02, 2006

Where Do I Begin?

Lets refresh some of my keys to the season from yesterday.

1. Free throw shooting:
Yesterday I mentioned that games in the NBA are won in the last five minutes of the game, and it is imperative to make the majority of those shots when the opportunity presents itself. I guess I failed to mention that NBA games can also be lost in the first and second quarters, by failing miserably to make free throws. The Dubs shot 64% from the line last night, 27-42. Horrendous really. It was painful to watch. Everything was short. They even missed the two technical free throws that they shot. A majority of those were in the first quarter. It was pitiful.

2. The Ebs and Flows of Mike Dunleavy:
Chalk it up to opening night jitters perhaps? I don't know. Dunleavy was noticibly absent in last night's game. His line:
4pts, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal and 1 turnover in 27 minutes. (is this a joke?)
This from our starting power forward.
He also combined with Troy Murphy to play matador defense on whomever he was guarding, including combining to help Ronnie Turiaf look like an all-star (23,9 and 3 in 32 min off the bench)

The Positives: (if any....)
I guess you could say the play of Monta Ellis off the bench was the only slight positive for the Dubs. Although many of his points came in garbage time when the outcome was already decided, he did hit all but one of his free throws, and continues to remain extremely poised for a a guy only 2 years removed from high school. He will be a player in this league.

Andris Biedrins: The dude can block shots. He currently leads in the NBA in blocked shots with 3. You may want to pick him up on your fantasy squad if play in a league with head to head match-up format with blocks as a category. Biedrins will also undoubtedly shoot a high percentage from the field again this year, which helps in fantasy. He also, only committed 3 fouls in 21 minutes. This is progress.

As for the Dubs as whole, I realize that last night was only 1 of 82. However I am a bit concerned. They layed a huge egg on opening night, and I was a frankly pissed off that I skipped my rec league game to attend such a awful display of pro basketball. The Dubs better rebound quickly, forget about last night and handle the trailblazers at home on Friday or else they could come back from the little 3 game roadie at Utah, Dallas and N.O. sitting at OOOOOHHHHH and Five.
Hopefully Greg Ogden is coming out at the end of the year.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Finally....

Today has been a great day thus far. So much hoops coverage. From Bill Simmons to endless articles about all teams. The Bulls looked good last night. Andrew Bynum even looked good last night! But as the Daily Dub, our focus is obviously on the team that plays its games out in Oaktown. I will be in attendance tonight for what I'm hoping will be a 114-101 Warriors victory over the Kobe-less Lakers.
I must say though that I was a bit surprised to see the the Lakers come back and win that one last night. Especially the way the Suns were filling it up in the first quarter. Though basketball is unlike baseball in its standings watchings, I was definitely rooting for the Suns as the Lakers are much more likely to be a team the our Dubs are going to contend with for one of the final(gulp) playoff spots in the west. While I am even somewhat of a fan of the way the Suns play basketball, I conceed that they are one of the elite teams in the West. They will win the pacific division, and hence, when they play any of the other teams in our division, (with the exception of the Warriors of course) I will be rooting for them.
That being said, I digress into what I think are some of the major keys for a sucessful Warriors season.

In no particular order......

1. The Development of the Young Players:
Andris Biedrins, Monta Ellis, Ike Diogu and to an extent Dujuan Wagner are all going to be counted on to make significant contributions off the bench for the Warriors this year. Unlike the Suns, who have the luxury of bringing Amare, Raja Bell, Barbosa and James Jones, all veteran players off the bench, the Dubs do not have that luxury. The sucess of our season will in a large way be determined by how quickly these guys can grasp defensive and offensive schemes and how quickly coach Nelson will start to believe in them as real NBA players. If he does not, and Baron, Jason and the rest of the starters are forced to play major minutes, the effectiveness of the small ball line up will not be fully utilized.

2. The Real Mike Dunleavy:
Like it or not Dubs fans, I think that the season as a whole rests on the shoulders of Mike Dunleavy. To this point in his career, he has not shown enough consistency to warrant the staring nod on most NBA teams. Whether the Warriors are trying to justify taking him so high in the 2002 draft, or whether they truely believe he can be a special player, and solid contributor on a team with playoff aspirations, he needs to play (much, much) better, and more consistent than he has previously. When I say that I'm thinking at least averages of 15 points and 6 rebounds and 5 assists for the season. Luckily, coach Nelson believes in the tools that Dunleavy posseses and will use him as a point forward that will allow the offense to at times be run through LilDun. While other coaches have attempted for short periods of time to do this, we all know that Nelson is committed to running, and he loves to have his bigs initiate the fast break. What is even more crazy is that I actually believe that Dunleavy can do this, and I really hope for our sake that Nelson figures out how to use his abilities to create offensive mismatches.

3. Health of the Starters:
Over the last two seasons, Davis, Richardson, Pietrus and Murphy have all missed extended periods of time due to injury. The losses of any of these key players for more than a few games will place added pressure on the reserves, and it remains unknown as to whether the reserves will be able to step in an contribute consistency on a nightly basis. Therefore the overall health of the team is paramount if the Warriors want to even think about the playoffs.

4. Free-throws:
By now we all know the stats. The Warriors lost an agonizing 14 games last year by 3 points or less. It didn't help that the Dubs were close to the bottom of the league in free throw percentage. 71%. However, even with the all the emphasis this preseason, the added assistant coach who specializes in free throw technique, through the preseason, the Dubs were shooting right around the same clip. Games in the NBA are won in the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter. If the Warriors, especially Davis and Richardson continue to languish towards the bottom of the league in Free-throw accuracy, they will definitely miss the playoffs.

My prediction:
For whatever reason, I believe that Nellie will be able to make enough schrewd moves that the Dubs will come out on the winning end of a majority of games.

45-37 (8th place in the west)